Shut Up About the Exponential Rise of the eBook Market!

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or, Have You Ever Actually Seen an eBook? In Their Current Iteration They’re Fucking Shithouse.

A halfway whimsical and mostly sarcastic note I posted on Facebook and Twitter recently solicited some unexpected comments that have lead me to think critically about what some people would say is the most important publishing-industry debate raging at the moment: the emerging eBook market and how it will affect the pBook market and its bookstores.

The tweet came to mind after I followed a link of Creative Penn’s to another whitepaper about the emerging eBook market. Among the first pages is this quote: “‘2011 will clearly be the year of the e-book.’ – Bloomsbury’s founder & chief executive Nigel Newton.”

WTF is Nigel Newton, and WTF is ‘Bloomsbury’ emboldened!?

Because Bloomsbury narrowly escaped the doldrums of print publishing by inflicting us with Harry Potter?

I heard this claim last year from B+P’s Digital Publishing Symposium , so I tweeted: ‘[insert date here] will clearly be the year of the e-book. – [insert authority here]

I also posted it on Facebook, and Candace Petrik wrote, “Don’t forget that (insert date here) will be the end of the bookshop industry”. And Felice Howden wrote, “Or the classic: ‘e-books will make up [insert arbitrary percentage here] of all book sales by this time next year.’” After scrounging for something witty to say, I added: “And [insert monopolistic online retailer here]’s e-book sales outstriped p-book sales on [insert gifting holiday here].”

(Then I wrote: “*stripped”.)

On Twitter the post was retweeted a few times and Lyndon Sharp added ‘Journo’s quote template’ before his ‘RT’.

This all sounds pretty funny, but it’s serious. There is a lot of media hype around at the moment about the momentous changes tearing through the industry, and there seem to be a lot of people around who have taken it upon themselves to lie about the speed with which the eBook market is overtaking the pBook market.

What I’m trying to get at here, though, is that people share this sentiment with me; it’s not just me being a dick. When you discover your ideas are shared with others, not because you shared those ideas but because they came to that conclusion themselves, you feel validated, right.

So this is a real thing that’s happening: people are making outlandish claims about the exponential rise of the eBook market, and people aren’t buying it. Nor are these people buying more eBooks than they buy pBooks. Why? Because eBooks, in their current iteration, are fucking shithouse. Why can’t we admit that to ourselves? Because we want to come off as progressive. Show me some progress and I’ll call you progressive.

I don’t know why people seem to enjoy making unfounded claims about things that not even Thorpe/Bowker would be able to make, and I can’t quite be bothered trying to counter the claims with contrary evidence (because we could play this game all day and ultimately the market will determine the conclusion, no matter what we have to say about it), but I think it’s worth noting that banging on about all this for too long might be the reason we’re (allegedly) so far behind in the global eBook market, which is also not true, apparently.

Maybe we should just be making good (read: novel) eBooks and trying to sell them, rather than dragging up half-researched figures and waving them around like we need evidence of the digital revolution we’re storming ourselves with. This topic used to be an elephant in the room: it is now more like an elephant in a china shop; we’re talking about this stuff as though we’re going to break the fucking industry if we don’t revolutionise our business models immediately.

That’s crap: our industry is one of the most curiously robust industries in our mixed economy, and I worry that if we try to force it to operate in a way it is not yet ready to operate, we will begin to lose sight of the point, which is to publish great literature for people to read: how we deliver this literature is just one of many ongoing problems the industry has always suffered, which is the result of literature being a relatively marginalised and misunderstood commodity of more cultural worth than we’ll ever know how to quantify economically.

I, for one, am going to try to shut up about eBooks for a while, at least until I stumble across some evidence that any sort of major shift is actually occurring. I’d appreciate it if you’d do the same, but I understand that conversations between ignorant strangers are difficult and sometimes need to be filled with chatter.

But that’s all this is right now: partially informed chatter between people who want to sound like they know what they’re talking about so they can say in [insert date here] they predicted the demise of the book industry. Well fucking done! What a great claim to fame. Shut up and read a book, and get back to me when you have some actual evidence, because currently, most eBooks are just electronic representations of existing pBooks.

*yawns*

Until someone uses this you-beaut technology to create something that is actually (how do you say?) novel (*coughs*), the eBook market will stay exactly where it is (in the margins of the margins), no matter how many times an industry aficionado says otherwise.

If you want to see the eBook market take over the pBook market, stop talking about it and start making eBooks that are actually better than pBooks.

Like this. Or even this. These are examples of the future of digital storytelling. And until they are made in abundance we will be stuck with this dead-tree industry that you so like to disparage.

Meanwhile, bookstores will be fine. Kapeesh? Orrighty then. Carry on.


This post was drafted while listening to 65daysofstatic’s We Were Exploding Anyway, because I am a fucking hipster and listening to post-rock while ranting about literature markets makes me simultaneously happy and sad.

  1. Also, I reckon it’s important to differentiate the marketing hype from the reality. There was no specific “Year of the mp3″, but nobody would deny that digital music is now the norm. There was no “Year of the Television”, or “Year of the Video Game”, or “Year of the Microwave Oven”. Change doesn’t happen like that because all of us are different, with different priorities and values. I’m a massive nerd, so I like to jump into stuff early and play around. Most people don’t have the patience for that, and will wait until a piece of technology “just works”. Ebooks are probably still too confusing for most readers – nobody wants to sit down and work out whether that EPUB file they downloaded will work with a device that only supports MOBI. But these kinks are getting smoothed out, and more people are reading up on ebooks just because it all sounds so interesting.

    For some, 2011 might be the year they first pick up a Kindle or a Nook or an iPad. For some, that might happen in 2015, or 2020, or never, and for some, the switch happened all the way back in 2007. These things don’t happen in single-year windows, and it’s often really easy to miss the “tipping point”, because that tipping point is actually spread over a relatively extended period.

    • I love the way you think about the way people use technology. I’m one of the people who like technology that just works, which is probably why I’m happy to keep using the book technology that’s been working for all these years. In fact I don’t even enjoy making print books work as much as I used to anymore, which is maybe why I’m so jaded about the most basic electronic representations of those print books. Gimme shit like Nawlz and the Moving Tales apps any day. That’s the future that excites me.

      And I think you’re spot on about the uptake of these things – the ‘tipping point’, as you say, is actually an expansive, slow shift. What I want to know is why some people insist the tipping point is happening right now. As I asked on Facebook: what are their motives? Is it just lazy journalism again, or is it cool to promote the eBook rise? A way of saying to others: “I’m so not a dinosaur”?

      • You totally deleted my other comment!

        There are a few reasons the media tend to exaggerate about the rise of new technologies. The main reason, I think, is that early adopters tend to have a higher-than-average level of disposable income, so a media outlet that promotes new technologies will be favoured by advertisers looking to sell those products. That’s not to say that there’s some grand conspiracy in play, but most editors do unconsciously shy away from publishing or airing pieces critical of products that might turn advertisers away.

        Another reason is that, in the absence of strong traditions, we tend to latch on the new pieces of technology as offering the promise of an continually deferred utopia. Regardless of the reality, ereaders offer the promise of a reading experience that is magical and transcendental. Maybe the reality is that the Kindle is inferior to a printed book, but there’s the possibility that the next generation model will change that… or the next model, or the model after that. I think it’s that sense of possibility that leads us to wax lyrical about gadgets. Some of us wait for the Rapture, and the rest of us wait for the new iPhone. Same, same.

        • What other comment!?

          • I was basically just wondering what it was about ebooks right now that you think is “shithouse”. The upcoming version 3.0 spec of the EPUB format is looking pretty promising.

        • I never get to thinking about media conspiracies on my own (either because I’m naive, too trusting, or mortally terrified of prime-mover puppets), but that seems to make sense about keeping technology producers happy.

          And I’ve done my fair share of waxing lyrical about things. I guess I did that with those links at the end of this post.

          I much prefer thinking the hype is caused by utopian hope than by media moguls, but I guess that’s my naivety coming through again.

          Thanks for these comments, Connor – as always they’ve helped me to expand my thinking on this. Did you really post another comment that got deleted? I haven’t actively deleted anything, but I did manage to delete my entire comments database once, and I was drunk last night, and … yeah. Don’t suppose you saved it in TextEdit, did you?

  2. Connor :

    I was basically just wondering what it was about ebooks right now that you think is “shithouse”. The upcoming version 3.0 spec of the EPUB format is looking pretty promising.

    They’re shithouse for the same reason Jaron Lanier implies MIDI is shithouse: they take a existing, perfectly functioning literature vessel, and represent it electronically in a way that offers little more than the original, pixellating the hell out of something for little gain. Yeah you can look up words and make notes and email snippets to your friends, but I read with a dictionary handy already, and I write in margins and I transcribe my snippets from print books.

    And eBooks are homogenised by their eReaders. Looking at my shelves just now I find the variety of pBook formats astounding. When I imagine digitising all of those books they all just look like a Kindle, which is an unsightly future, if you ask me, no matter how many ‘new and improved’ versions they release.

    Also, there doesn’t seem to be an electronic equivalent to typesetting yet: eBooks I’ve tried to read from publishers whose print books are otherwise beautiful are so poorly formatted they’re difficult to read.

  3. I feel like I’ve been listening to the declaration that the book is dead for my entire adult life. It reminds me of listening to senior academics babble about Second Life. It’s like they’ve all gone back to Marshall McLuhan’s ‘medium is the message’ mantra and forgotten people don’t adopt technology simply because it’s new. Interesting post indeed – and I think Esther’s coming over for Festival of Unpopular Culture. Panel or forum or something on this topic maybe?

    • I’m down if Ryan is.

      • Also, I’m pretty sure 2011 is going to be the Year of Second Life. Definitely sure of it.

  4. I think publishers are doing more than you give them credit for. The new ePub format is bitchin’, and anyone with an (warning: industry rhetoric) aggressive eBook strategy has noticed the difference between print and screen reading and is typesetting/formatting their eBooks to make screen reading a better experience. Is it fair to say that most of the eBooks you’ve read are free, possibly even licensed under creative commons and might have just been hurled together from a PDF of a manuscript typed up by a guy on his laptop? There has been a shitload of progress away from this sort of eBook in the last year, even, as you well know.

    The market is rising. I think the problem is these sorts of claims are so ubiquitous who the hell do you listen to? Really? And they get tiring.

    I don’t think anyone is saying the pBook is dead anymore, are they? Bookshops are still on the doomsday prediction list, though. Soon to be joined by Apps I reckon – the balance is tipping away from apps. (so sayeth I!)

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